The FAA Follies

As I write this, it has been 866 days without a ratified contact for the controller workforce.  A number of unions, federal and private sector, are feeling hopeful that the inauguration of Barack Obama next week will mark the beginning of a significant, positive change in the history of labor in this country and truly eradicate the worst of the residual effects of Reagan firing the PATCO controllers in 1981.  We saw bits of this positive change during the Clinton administration, but under GWB, the entire country, not just organized labor, suffered – and still suffers – greatly.

I originally envisioned this post to be solely about Obama’s plans to cut middle management in government and was researching numbers.  It seems that there have been an increasing number of supervisory bids since the imposition of the Imposed Work Rules (IWRs) and I wanted to see what those numbers actually showed.  I found some interesting ones that I’ll share, but a few other thoughts have been rolling around in my cranium that I think need to be said and they all are related my final conclusion, so this might end up being another two-part series for you readers so that I can get them out into the general blogosphere.

But first, let’s look at numbers.  I couldn’t find an exact number of supervisors and controllers in 1981 at the time of the PATCO strike.  All I found was this letter to the editor of the New York Times which mentions a combined number of supervisors and staff specialists which leads me to believe that the ratio of controllers to supervisors probably averaged somewhere between 9:1 to 10:1.

For more current numbers I checked the FAA Administrator’s Fact Book.  I don’t know why it still amazes me that their own numbers aren’t consistent, but I’ll use the data from the December 2006 book for fiscal year 2004 (FY2004).  The FAA’s data says they had 14,736 controllers and 1,722 supervisors.  That’s a ratio of 8.55 controllers to 1 supervisor.

Those who have been in the Agency might recall that part of the premise for reclass was that controllers would pick up more Controller-in-Charge duties and the Agency would let the supervisory ranks to attrit to a ratio closer of 10:1.  Reclass was in 1996; contract in 1998.

In June 2002, the (GAO) submitted this report to Congress – Air Traffic Control:  FAA Needs to Better Prepare for Impending Wave of Controller Attrition. The GAO’s numbers for FY2000 are 15,120 controllers and 1,862.  A ratio of 8.12 controllers to 1 supervisor.

More from the report:

Rather, FAA’s strategy for replacing controllers is generally to hire new controllers only when current, experienced controllers leave….For example, FAA’s hiring process does not adequately take into account the potential increases in future hiring and the time necessary to fully train replacements. (page 4)

Ultimately, FAA’s ability to successfully plan and manage this situation will dictate its overall impact on the nation’s air traffic control system and the safety and efficiency of air travel in the United States. (page 43; emphasis added)

FAA estimates by 2010, it will need about 2,000 more controllers than are presently employed to handle future increases in air traffic. (page 5)

And from page 22…and the FAA’s own numbers as they provided to the GAO, the Agency was supposedly planning to have 16,836 controllers in 2008.  Oh, one more tidbit from the same table; in 2003, they were projecting to have 15,606 controllers as per the negotiated agreement with NATCA.

From the FAA Administrator’s Fact Book:  As of June 30, 2008, the Agency has 15,308 controllers (which clearly states that the total includes individuals in the Academy and trainees not certified on anything yet).  1,857 supervisors for a ratio of 8.24 controllers to 1 supervisor.

I threw a lot of numbers out there, but in essence, there are a couple things that are worthy of note.  One, the Agency had already reneged on its agreement(s) with NATCA about controller staffing…long before the IWRs.  There were supposed to have 15,606 controllers onboard in 2003…but as of 2008 – five years later, they’re still 300 short of that number (having never reached that number at all).  They were supposed to let the supervisory ranks attrit, yet the ratio of controllers to supervisors increased from 2002 to 2004.  In fairness, it did decrease in 2005, but has been rising ever since.

Two, the Agency pretty much gave the GAO and Congress the proverbial finger and didn’t attempt to address the recommendations in that 2002 report until 5 years later.  The Agency didn’t start hiring trainees until people had retired; they didn’t even attempt to plan for retirements at individual facilities until 2007 when the IWRs started a larger wave of retirements (as predicted by NATCA) than the Agency was prepared for.

Three, the Agency obviously couldn’t even adequately plan for their OWN recommendations and projected needs.  Remember the numbers they gave GAO for 2008?  16,836…and there are 15,606.  Not even close, FAA.

Seems to me that thus far, the Agency has unsuccessfully planned and managed this situation – partly because of incompetence, partly because of its union-busting agenda – and the negative impact on the nation’s air traffic control system and the safety and efficiency of air travel in the United States has yet to be fully felt by the flying public.  Controllers have been feeling it now for two years and we know no immediate end is in sight.

To be continued…