Yesterday’s Technology Fixing Today’s Problems Tomorrow
Posted by Paul Cox on May 25th, 2009
Today’s title comes to me from a reader (thanks TL!), who saw it on a button somewhere… meaning I don’t know who to attribute it to. But it pretty neatly sums up the FAA in a way.
Almost 20 years ago, when I first got hired by the FAA, I was a ski bum. After I got hired by the agency, the next winter (91-92) I again worked part-time as an instructor and on the race hill at the ski resort, mostly to get the free season pass.
I hung out apres-ski at the restaurant where I’d worked the season before (mostly to get free food and drinks). They had a guy working there who had just gotten out of the Army, and he had been in Desert Storm. He was a scout and actually was one of the guys who were sent in behind the Iraqi lines to run around and plan things for the invasion.
We asked him about Iraq and he talked about how flat and featureless much of the southern portion of the country was. He said they used to have competitions amongst themselves to see who did the best job of keeping track of where they were; navigation can be difficult when you don’t have any topographic features to take bearings off of and it’s just flat, sandy plains as far as the eye can see.
He raved, though, about this super-neato box they had. It was something called GPS and you just hit a button and shazam, it told you where you were at to within a couple dozen yards. It was brand-new and didn’t always work, but as a scout trained in dead reckoning, he thought it was the coolest thing since sliced bread because he and his fellow scouts would occasionally make some errors but the magic box (when it worked) was dead-on every time.
Now, the reason it didn’t work 100% of the time was that the United States was still launching the GPS satellites at the time. However, the planning for GPS had been going on for some time. In 1983, President Reagan announced that GPS would be available for civilian use when it was up and running.
The first satellite of the first generation went up in 1978; the first one of the second generation (which we still use today) went up in 1989; the Department of Defense annouced GPS had achieved “IOC” (Initial Operational Capability) and was officially available for use by the Department of Transportation in 1993; and we had a “full” constellation of 24 satellites by 1994. In 1996 President Clinton issued an order that basically guaranteed GPS would be operational for all users, with its best accuracy.
The point of this long intro is that GPS is not something “new”. It’s been around, in one form or another, for decades now. The United States has had a policy of making GPS available for civil, non-military use, for over 25 years. It is, truly, yesterday’s technology.
Today’s problem, of course, is airport delays. Well, it’s not just today’s problem, as Don Brown has done an excellent job of pointing out on his blog Get The Flick; it’s been an issue for decades as well. Perhaps we could say that the only things that never change are death, taxes, and delays in/out of the New York City metro area! The FAA, though, is selling Congress, the users, and the public the idea that a GPS-based system is somehow going to solve all of our airline delay problems.
And, in typical FAA fashion, the problem won’t be solved immediately; it’s going to take years in the future. The FAA isn’t even willing to predict exactly how much the delays will be reduced ten years fro now, as I pointed out here on the Follies a while ago.
GPS and the notion of a space-based ATC system isn’t new. GPS is a technology that’s nearly 30 years old. Those satellites aren’t permanent, either… which leads me to mention a news item that many of our readers saw in the past couple of weeks; the Government Accounting Office released a report on May 7th that basically said “hey, our GPS satellites are old, they’re wearing out, and the Department of Defense is doing a crappy job trying to replace them”. From the highlight page of that report:
The Global Positioning System (GPS), which provides position, navigation, and timing data to users worldwide, has become essential to U.S. national security and a key tool in an expanding array of public service and commercial applications at home and abroad. The United States provides GPS data free of charge. The Air Force, which is responsible for GPS acquisition, is in the process of modernizing GPS…
It is uncertain whether the Air Force will be able to acquire new satellites in time to maintain current GPS service without interruption. If not, some military operations and some civilian users could be adversely affected. (1) In recent years, the Air Force has struggled to successfully build GPS satellites within cost and schedule goals; it encountered significant technical problems that still threaten its delivery schedule; and it struggled with a different contractor. As a result, the current IIF satellite program has overrun its original cost estimate by about $870 million and the launch of its first satellite has been delayed to November 2009–almost 3 years late…
Here’s an important quote from testimony given to Congress by a GAO official regarding the reliability of GPS:
“The estimated long-term probability of maintaining a constellation of at least 24 operational satellites falls below 95 percent during fiscal year 2010 and remains below 95 percent until the end of fiscal year 2014, at times falling below 80 percent,” she said.
As if that weren’t bad enough, there was another news item that didn’t draw as much attention (although, again, Don Brown caught it- kudos to him, hopefully smart folks are reading his blog and paying attention) but is a pretty big deal.
See, the system of the future is all about GPS, right? Yet we learn from the GAO that the old satellites aren’t being replaced on time and service interruptions may occur as a result. And the NextGen system needs some kind of backup to GPS in case it’s not working correctly, right?
Um… maybe not:
In his budget issued on May 7, President Obama recommended killing the Long-Range Navigation System, or Loran-C, which the Coast Guard operates. The administration argued the government should not fund the system because it is obsolete technology, and the United States no longer needs it because GPS has “superior capabilities.”
…
GPS is the core of the Federal Aviation Administration’s Next-Generation Air Transportation System, and the Transportation Department expects the Defense Department to operate 21 GPS satellites 98 percent of the time, which is equivalent to 24 satellites in operation 95 percent of the time, said Karen Van Dyke, acting director for positing, navigation and timing at the Research and Innovative Technology Administration at Transportation.
Defense, Transportation and DHS have developed backup systems to GPS other than eLoran, according to the president’s budget. But Michael Harrison, a consultant with Aviation Management Associates in Alexandria, Va., said the administration has not defined other backup systems besides eLoran.
The government could save $36 million in fiscal 2010 and $190 million during five years if it ends the Loran-C program, according to the president’s budget. But Harrison said keeping the current system in operation will provide a better value. “It makes no sense to cancel Loran, because it provides an adequate backup and timing signal at a lower cost than anything else,” he said.
(I added the boldfacing. -ed)
Are you starting to see the problem here? The FAA plans for and counts on the satellites being available 95 percent of the time. The GAO is saying that from 2010 until 2014 we’re going to be below that mark, and even below 80 percent available at times. And the government has cancelled the best option for a backup nav system as well.
So we’ve got yesterday’s technology failing but the FAA is planning to use it to fix today’s problems, but even that old technology won’t apparently won’t be fully ready tomorrow and we’ve just cancelled the best backup system.
And Marion Blakey, Bobby Sturgell, and the rest of their corporate overlords expect us to shell out billions of dollars on this plan?
Does anyone but me see a problem here?
May 25th, 2009 at 2:28 pm
Well said Paul. Thanks.
May 25th, 2009 at 3:51 pm
Even if there is a problem, you can expect the classic FAA response.
“Safety was never compromised.”
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize that GPS isn’t going to make airplanes land faster. And even if it did, there’s no way it could be a significant enough breakthrough to dramatically decrease delays in our most congested airports. Unless we change change separation standards or hey, here’s an idea…how about we build more runways? No, never that. That’ll cost too much money. We’d rather spend 20 billion to implement GPS into ATC. It’s no wonder the airlines aren’t on board this load of bs. They know it’ll cost them hundreds of millions, if not billions to implement this stuff in their aircraft, and they don’t see a return on that investment. They do see a bunch of money going to AIA though.
Seems we shelled out billions to contractors just for the sake of money-hungry FAA management who know damn well (or maybe they’re in denial, your guess is as good as mine) this is gonna be a more disastrous and costly failure that ERAM has already proven to be.
May 25th, 2009 at 6:20 pm
I doesn’t matter if Nextgen works or not. Congress believes it, the public could care less and those pesky controllers don’t know what they are talking about anyway. As long as I get hired by Lockheed or Boeing when I resign, all is well!
Sound familiar?
May 25th, 2009 at 9:02 pm
Time to brush up on my non-radar…
May 26th, 2009 at 3:51 am
In his budget issued on May 7, President Obama recommended killing the Long-Range Navigation System, or Loran-C, which the Coast Guard operates. The administration argued the government should not fund the system because it is obsolete technology, and the United States no longer needs it because GPS has “superior capabilities.”
Apparently the President of the United States is putting his bet on GPS as well. That would lead me to believe it will have a higher level of support by his administration.
May 26th, 2009 at 6:12 am
The main problem I see with using LORAN as a backup is that almost no one has it. When is the last time you talked to a /I? LORAN was horribly expensive back when it was the top-line nav system, and most of the people who could afford it back then ripped it out and installed GPS. I’d say it would be useless as a backup. The only other nav equipment you’re going to find in most aircraft are VOR/DME receivers.
I also find a problem with your math – Let’s see:
“The United States has had a policy of making GPS available for civil, non-military use, for over 25 years.”
“…the Department of Defense annouced GPS had achieved “IOC” (Initial Operational Capability) and was officially available for use by the Department of Transportation in 1993.”
2009-1993 = 16 years availability.
“GPS is a technology that’s nearly 30 years old.”
“The first satellite of the first generation went up in 1978.”
2009-1978 = 31 years old.
May 26th, 2009 at 6:20 am
Great article Paul,
As a past DoD employee, responsible for launching and testing GPS satellites, there are many other problems with GPS that makes is less than desirable as a “one source” navigation system.
All GPS satellite signals are compromised by solar activity. Just check the daily notams and see the gps outages listed daily. These aren’t maintenance outages, these are predictable outages caused by solar activity.
One of my jobs was to “degrade” the signal. With a small computer, I was able to instruct the gps satellite to “tell” you that you were positioned anywhere I chose. Think you’re on final to JFK in low IFR. Presto! A hacker can put you on final to any building and make you, and your navigation system, absolutely believe you’re still on a JFK final.
GPS is great! I love it. I use it in my car and in my airplane. Do I want it as my only source of navigation? Absolutely not!!!!!!!
May 26th, 2009 at 7:58 am
you mean the FAA maybe wrong?…….FAA does not have a clue what to do. Just as long as congress spends the money for the next few years and the idiots can retire. Bakley and Sturgell ….have their nice jobs and have to get congress to spend the billions on something that might not work?….they are good at misleding Congress!
Loran cost 40 million to keep running and the VOR system 3 billion. SO which one do we keep….?!
Do we really need RVSM in the United States…..getting twice as many aircraft to the same shrinking number of runways?….
May 26th, 2009 at 10:02 am
If you want a good laugh, watch the FAA propaganda video “Nextgen Gate to Gate” available here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-PWdHKXsUE8
As I worked traffic around thunderstorms this week, not a single aircraft followed the same path through the weather. The part of this video I particularly enjoy is where the narrator states, with little explanation, “… weather will be easily handled…” Easily handled? By trying to force every pilot to fly the same fixed RNAV route through weather chosen by the computer? Good luck with that, dreamers. If AIA has its way, we’ll be spending a lot of money over a long period of time before we discover this won’t work. Marion sould use the money.
May 26th, 2009 at 10:19 am
Do you mean that when those GPS satellite batteries wear out the planes will have to fly zig-zag routes across the country. Why just yesterday those airplanes were flying zig-zag routes because of weather and now I hear about those satellites going on the fritz. Heck that means if there is weather and broken satellites those same planes will have to fly ziggy-zaggy routes. I better get my dress pant pressed, bone up on my phraseology(“niner, niner, niner”, just practicing) and spit out my chewing gum because it looks like we’ve got work to do.
May 26th, 2009 at 10:34 am
So even the Most High Obama has been duped by Bush/Blakey? Say it ain’t so. Or did his teleprompter screw up?
May 26th, 2009 at 10:51 am
JoeCool… I wrote that paragraph a bit poorly. My point is that the *policy* has been around for more than 25 years; it was in 1983 that Reagan said “GPS will be available for civilian use”.
What this means is that the FAA has had, since 1983, the knowledge that GPS can and should be used as a primary method of navigation. They’re acting now as though it’s something new and gee-whizzy, but what if they’d started planning for GPS to be the primary navigation method back in… I dunno… 1985? Think they could have gotten somewhere in 24 years?
I don’t have a problem with GPS being the main nav method. I do think that we need a backup, and obviously we’ve got to choose between stuff like LORAN and basic VOR/DME navigation for that.
What I have a problem with is the notion that GPS is new and game-changing. It’s not; as every working controller knows, the vast majority of aircraft already have (and USE) GPS. It’s also not the super-reliable, never-fail system it’s made out to be, at least not by aviation reliability standards; between solar flares and the DoD’s screwing up the replacement program, we’ll have significant GPS outages over the next decade or so.
GPS is truly a decades-old technology that we’re proposing to bring online as the main method right as it’s failing due to lack of proper upkeep over the years. The FAA is decades behind the power curve and using PR to make it look like it’s on the ball.
May 26th, 2009 at 2:04 pm
Two thoughts.. MLS and Coronal Mass ejections..
May 26th, 2009 at 3:54 pm
The NextGen PR spin will look something like this:
“Safety was never compromised up until the moment of impact. At that point, the pilot became responsible for not adhering to the principles of *See and be seen*. We are not at fault.”.
Good job as always Paul.
Grump
May 26th, 2009 at 8:37 pm
Imagine today’s internet capability back in the 1930′s and 1940′s. Imagine then, the old posts we might find from some of the unionized traffic cops, who at the time, were facing the advent of traffic lights. Many of ya’ll sound just like that imaginary scenario.
I’m betting we’ll see Babbitt insert NEXGEN implementation into the next NATCA contract. The $$ offered to controllers will make it hard to reject. Then, all of a sudden, you’ll see NEXGEN endorsed by NATCA. Just like STARS was agreed too during Garvey’s tenure. The fact that NEXGEN is not defined yet is a good thing. That’s what separates it from past failures like AAS. Additionally, the industry is behind a new ATC system this time. With no requirements yet set into stone, the opportunity for controller design input will make it a great system; just like today’s sensory equipped, syncronized traffic lights.
We also need to get rid of 75% of flems and give the Union more/all responsibility for first level supervisory tasks. Take all the $$ from the fired 75% of flems and put it into a “CIC pool” Have the CIC’s run the breaks and chow lists, the position assignments, etc. Also the sole authority for position certification. No extra cost. The $$ gained form the 75% of fired flems may make CIC differential well over 40%!!
May 26th, 2009 at 11:09 pm
…We also need to get rid of 75% of flems and give the Union more/all responsibility for first level supervisory tasks. Take all the $$ from the fired 75% of flems and put it into a “CIC pool” Have the CIC’s run the breaks and chow lists, the position assignments, etc….
I agree. As a 20+ controller, I can give sworn testimony if needed, that it is the CIC’s that run the shifts, even if we just nudge the FLM’s into doing it. We controllers already run the rotation, the 33 minute lunch break, the 22 minute break, the training, the schedule, briefings, CBI’s, etc.
Here is to you Mr. Uneducated OM. You again proved that you have NO IDEA how a level 9 or lower facility operates. Go play some more solitare, and again wonder why you did not win.
May 26th, 2009 at 11:54 pm
I agree with Dana and then some. Get rid of all the flems at the level 11 and 12′s. Let the union decide how to and who does the supervision. We get the pay also. Let the union decide how.
July 3rd, 2009 at 9:44 am
Well I can say that ADS-B rev2 is the GPS system they are pushing. Infact its gone between 3 companies now. Raytheon started it. Failed Miserably, a Company called Capstone bought the rights from Raytheon and Made the system work. Well what they company forgot to do is give the GBT's(Ground Based Transceivers) an International usable Frequency. So it got scrapped after the FAA had already paid Millions for the System. Now the System has been bought out again, and revamped "AGAIN" and has been given the OK from the FAA to start implementing. Sad thing is its 100% Contract the system does not touch FAA Technicians Hands. And who has the Contract you might ask? AT&T somehow got there hands in it. ADS-B is a very complex system, requires a TON of Server power, and quick networks in order to get the data to other planes equip for ADS-B and to controllers scopes (I think Alaska and Miami are the only 2 places with ADS-B right now) . I Think about this, this way. The FAA Requires a Certified Trained FAA Employee to Certify the Radar Data coming in on a daily basis. There are several reports you have to run and some very tight tolerances on how inaccurate the data can be, before allowing it to be used to control traffic with. But now the FAA is allowing an exception to this rule in allowing AT&T to give GPS type radar information with out an FAA Tech Certifying the system. To me this is step 1 for contracting the FAA out. Because now the Tech dont have a Job, and with ADS-B supposedly you dont have to have as many controllers because the Pilots can control themselves. (we all know that wont happen nor is that safe to allow) But as much as I like working on some of these new NEXTGEN style systems coming in, it goes to show that we have high ranking people in Washington FAA Side that dont have a clue on what Controllers and Techs do. If you take Controlling traffic and maintaining the systems Controllers use out of Federal Hands I think you risk the Publics safety. Would you feel safe if the Military was Contracted out to say Lockheed Martin? I sure wouldnt.